AI / Compute Regime Index
Where is the AI-compute system binding right now? Six axes — capex, concentration, power, research, real estate, labor — distilled from
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Regime read:
Composite — 6-axis AI/compute pulse
Equal-weight z-score of six sub-pulses (capex, concentration, power, research, DC real-estate, labor), each itself a YoY-z composite of its members on an expanding window (min 24m). Phase bands at −1.5 / −0.5 / 0.5 / 1.5 match the Energy / Food convention so cross-pillar regime co-firing is readable. Higher z = more broad-based AI-compute tightening.
Regime history strip
Phase ribbon — color per month: BENIGN ·
COOLING ·
NORMAL ·
HEATING ·
STRESSED.
Eyeball check: HEATING/STRESSED clusters identify periods of broad-based AI-compute system tightening.
Sub-pulse decomposition — where the heat is
Sub-pulse trajectories — small multiples
Each sub-pulse on its own scale across the same time window. Threshold dashes at ±1.5σ mark the HEATING/STRESSED boundaries. Sub-pulses in the bottom row may have shorter histories (the labor and concentration components are the most data-lagged).
Semi cycle — YoY price by name (12m)
12-month YoY % change in monthly mean closing price for representative semi names. NVDA / TSM / SOXX cover the leading-edge cycle; AVGO / MU / ASML cover networking, memory, and EUV equipment respectively.
Capex layer — hyperscaler aggregate from 10-Q XBRL
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company-facts API. Hyperscaler aggregate is the sum of MSFT + GOOGL + AMZN + META + ORCL + IBM + NOW + SNOW + CRM quarterly capex. Major-semi revenue is NVDA + AMD + INTC + AVGO + MU + TSM + ASML quarterly revenue.
Concentration layer — Census US chip-import HHI
Herfindahl–Hirschman Index of US imports by partner-country share, HS-code level. Higher = more concentrated. HHI of 0.40+ would indicate a single supplier exceeding ~60% share of a category — a fragility signal.
Latest-month US-imports partner-country shares per HS code. Taiwan / Korea concentration in HS-8542 (electronic ICs) is the dominant feature; Netherlands lithography concentration in HS-8486 is the second.
Power layer — DC-relevant equity universe
yfinance close prices, monthly mean. The DC-relevant cohort: PJM utilities (AEP), ERCOT independents (VST, CEG), nuclear (CCJ, OKLO), DC cooling (VRT), and EPC (PWR). Spread captures whether the build-out is constrained at the chip step or the power step.
Research / attention — Wikipedia, Epoch AI, Federal Register
Wikipedia pageviews — top AI entities (12-month change)
Federal Register — policy event count (last 12 mo vs prior 12 mo)
Attention proxies (left): Wikipedia REST API monthly pageviews, English. Policy-event proxies (right): Federal Register API counting documents matching each search term per month.
Universe — what's wired
Methodology
Sources: