Research
Cross-country & multi-polar
The Multi-Polar World
Cross-country macro through the Repricing lens. IMF COFER currency composition, BIS credit gaps across 44 countries, World Bank GDP shares, IMF IRFCL monthly reserves. The complement to the US-centric pillar pages.
Credit-Cycle Melt-Up Monitor
Synthesizes spread compression, credit-to-GDP gap, public debt expansion, asset/credit divergence, and cross-asset risk into a single regime read. Disclosed by lens so the shape of the cycle is legible, not just the headline.
Melt-Up Watchlist
PIT S&P 500 cross-section ranked on cyclicality (β + momentum + vol). The current (BCI phase × CCMI tercile) state determines which side historically leads. Research surface, not a backtested portfolio — sleeve constructions on this signal were tested and killed; the names are still informative.
Swap Lines Monitor
The institutional architecture of the post-Bretton-Woods dollar system. Standing C5 swap arrangements (BoC, BoE, BoJ, ECB, SNB) since October 2013, FIMA Repo since March 2020. FRED SWPT outstanding with regime classification, full activation history (GFC $583B, COVID $449B, European debt $109B), maturity bucket split, and methodology.
Crypto & digital assets
Crypto Positioning Watch
CFTC Traders in Financial Futures for BTC and ETH — the institutional positioning signal as it shifts each week.
Crypto Volatility Regimes
Realized vol, implied vol, and the spread between them — the cleanest read on whether option markets are pricing crypto as risk-asset or store-of-value.
Digital Asset Research
Bitcoin and Ethereum cycle and network metrics — the inputs we'd hand to a paid Glassnode tier if we had one.
ETF Flow Tracker
US BTC and ETH spot ETF daily net flows — the institutional buy-side signal in real time.
Stablecoin Research
Per-issuer reserve composition, transfer-value flows, and the comparative position of stablecoins among sovereign UST holders.
Cycle & macro
Recession Watch
Yield-curve probit + multi-indicator logit + Sahm rule sigmoid. The ensemble vs each component's standalone read.
Inflation Nowcast
2-input composite (PPI + core PCE 6m annualized) calibrated by 60-month rolling-origin OLS — OOS corr +0.88 across all regimes including the 2020-2022 surge and 2023-2024 disinflation.
Wage Growth Nowcast
7-input composite (JOLTS quits + hires, unemployment gap, prime-age employment, WEI, breakevens, manufacturing employment), 60-month rolling-origin OLS — OOS corr +0.73 at h=6m, +0.76 at h=12m.
Industrial Production Nowcast
8-input composite (manufacturing payrolls, capacity utilization, manufacturing hours, new orders, truck tonnage, WEI, initial claims, inventory-to-sales), 60-month rolling-origin OLS — OOS corr +0.74 at h=3m. h=12m fails post-2020 and is not shipped.
Calibration Ledger
Every nowcast prediction is recorded the moment it's made, scored against realized data when it lands. Inflation 3m/6m, regime classifier, CCMI return — all aggregated MAE / hit rate / bias / correlation, with rolling 24-month metrics that surface regime drift.
Fedspeak Hawkishness Index
Every governor speech, FOMC statement, minutes, press conference, and Chair testimony scored across five policy dimensions with full audit trail and pull-quote evidence. Backtest gate cleared at +0.36 R² face-validity test.